I have decided to post some info about the bird flu. I know some aren't concerned about this and think it is not important. However, I would like to say that this isn't a right wing conspiracy. Righters and Lefters have been studying this issue since 1997 (see cdc.gov) We all know we should be prepared. Growing up LDS has taught us that. I am just going to share some epidemiological facts (not "right wing made up scare tactics") with ya'll. There were 3 bird flu pandemics in the last century (1918, 1957, 1968) 1918 was the most severe US population was 103, 208,000. Deaths from that flu were 675,000. > 90% Mortality were among those aged 20-45 (unusual for the flu but thats the way it was). 1957 70, 000 US deaths 1-2 million deaths world wide, 1968 34, 000 us deaths 700,000 deaths worldwide. the decrease in mortality was partially due to medical advances, but also due to differences in virulency of strain. the stain of interest currently is called 'H5N1'. currently is passing from bird to bird regularly. it is also killing most of the birds (wild and domestic) that get infected. it is currently present in birds in all of Asia, Europe (including the old USSR), Middle East and Africa (about 2 years ago it was only found in asia). It has had some bird to human transfer (with 50% of these resulting in deaths) in all countries with infected birds (see above list). There has not been human to human transfer yet. Human to human transfer is when the pandemic will begin. (good old evolution working here)Recently CDC scientists uncovered graves of eskimos who has died of the flu in 1918. There were able to isolate viral dna from the bodies and compare it to the H5N1 virus now occuring in birds and passing from bird to human and it is the same virus. Perhaps you all know that part. The part you don't know is more important. The federal government is asling the states to have a plan in place, there is no real fed gov plan for dealing with this when it comes. In SL county there are expected to be about 280000 people getting sick with the pandemic (bird) flu. 30000 will be sick enough to be hospitalized, 5000 will need to be in the ICU 2500 will need to be on a ventilator. This issue is, there are only 1000 hospital beds in the state. There are only 500 ventilators in the state. People will not be admitted to the hospital for the flu. SImply because people will still be having heart attacks, diabteic coma, cancer, babies will still be born, etc. Remember the numbers I am giving are for SL County only, we still have to think about Weber, Davis and Utah counties (and all the others). Most people who get the flu and are sick enough to be hospitalized will probably die because there are not enough hospital beds or ventilators to support them. Buying more vents is not the answer. Patients on a vent need to be monitored by an ICU trained RN. There are about 1500 RNs in the state, less than half have been ICU trained. Training tech's to monitor vent patients is like having Sam deliver Caleb (no offense Sam). People sick enough to be hospitalized will probably end up in "off site" wards with 70 patients to every nurse. Every company should plan for a 30% reduction in force due to illness(including nurses, docs, policemen, firemen). It may be that social gatherings are cancelled (church) many services may not be available due to people being sick and not able to run the water plants, electric and gas companies. We will have to be self sufficient and not dependent on the government (what a novel idea!) to help us. I feel I have done enough cramming of info down your throats. If you don't think this was a big deal before reading this, I hope you do now. If you still don't care, you may be suffering from what we in the medical community call "public misperception of sufficiency of care". Those who want to know more about reccomendations for preparedness, length of the pandemic, how to prevent spread, isolation techniques if you get ill, etc. feel free to post questions or email me @ hduckworth2006@hotmail.com
if you choose not to care, remember you have been warned and don't come to my house when you get sick (isolation technique...seriously!)